{"id":27460,"date":"2024-05-07T23:01:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T23:01:46","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T23:00:00","slug":"statistiky-vs-realita-proc-data-nereknou-o-fotbale-vsechno","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mercedesautoservis.cz\/?p=27460","title":{"rendered":"Statistiky vs. realita: Pro\u010d data ne\u0159eknou o fotbale v\u0161echno"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0158\u00e1dn\u00e1 d\u00e1vka \u010d\u00edsel, ale kde je ten m\u00ed\u010d?<\/h2>\n

\u010c\u00edsla se sb\u00edhaj\u00ed jako m\u00ed\u010d p\u0159i rohu, ale \u010dasto kon\u010d\u00ed mimo h\u0159i\u0161t\u011b. Analytik kouk\u00e1 na 85\u202f% \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost p\u0159ihr\u00e1vek a u\u017e se c\u00edt\u00ed jako odborn\u00edk, zat\u00edmco tren\u00e9r z\u00edr\u00e1 na rozcuchan\u00e1 t\u011bla a v\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fdsledek z\u00e1vis\u00ed na momentu, ne na procentech. V takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i jsou statistiky jen \u0161pi\u010dkat\u00fd z\u00e1pis v z\u00e1pisn\u00edku, nen\u00ed to cel\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh.<\/p>\n

Jednosm\u011brn\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry a jejich fale\u0161n\u00fd komfort<\/h2>\n

Jedna v\u011bc je sledovat pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 dr\u017een\u00ed m\u00ed\u010de. Dva minuty versus \u010dty\u0159i? Je to jen pruh v grafech, ne ukazatel, \u017ee t\u00fdm m\u00e1 kontrolu. Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te na konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed souboje, zjist\u00edte, \u017ee jedni hr\u00e1\u010di dominuj\u00ed, jin\u00ed se jenom pl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. Ten rozd\u00edl se ve statistice jen tak neodhal\u00ed. A nav\u00edc se \u010dasto zapomene, \u017ee fotbal je dynamick\u00fd \u2013 rychlost zm\u011bny taktiky b\u011bhem 90 minut d\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011br\u016fm sm\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Psychologie, intuice, \u0161t\u011bk\u00e1n\u00ed publika<\/h2>\n

Rozd\u00edl mezi t\u00edm, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed grafy, a t\u00edm, co opravdu c\u00edt\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010d, jsou miliony mikro\u2011moment\u016f. Hr\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd c\u00edt\u00ed tlak, zvedne hlavu, p\u0159iprav\u00ed se na dal\u0161\u00ed pas. To nep\u016fjde zachytit v Excelu, ale rozhodn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek. Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te na z\u00e1znam ze z\u00e1pasu, uc\u00edt\u00edte nap\u011bt\u00ed, z\u00e1pal, a to je n\u011bco, co \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 tabulka neuk\u00e1\u017ee.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdpadky a \u0161\u0165astn\u00e9 n\u00e1hody \u2013 fakta, co se nedaj\u00ed kvantovat<\/h2>\n

Nezapome\u0148me na \u201e\u0161\u0165astnou chybu\u201c \u2013 st\u0159elec se po\u0161kr\u00e1be a m\u00ed\u010d p\u0159istane na soupe\u0159i, kter\u00fd zkr\u00e1tka nev\u00ed, \u017ee je v\u010das. Takov\u00fd moment m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout v\u00fdsledek, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 statistika o st\u0159elc\u00edch to nezaznamen\u00e1. P\u0159esn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla o p\u0159ihr\u00e1vk\u00e1ch, blokov\u00e1n\u00ed, jsou u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e1, ale nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zku, pro\u010d se t\u00fdm rozpad\u00e1 v 75. minut\u011b, kdy\u017e u\u017e by m\u011bl \u201ezblbnout\u201c.<\/p>\n

Technologie a data mining \u2013 kde kon\u010d\u00ed realistick\u00fd pohled<\/h2>\n

Sledujete-li pokro\u010dil\u00e9 metriky z msczfotbal.com<\/a>, z\u00edsk\u00e1te hromadu detail\u016f \u2013 nap\u0159. xG, expected assists. To je cenn\u00e9, ale i tato \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee hr\u00e1\u010d jedn\u00e1 racion\u00e1ln\u011b. Realita? Hr\u00e1\u010d n\u011bkdy zvol\u00ed \u201eklobou\u010dnou\u201c p\u0159ihr\u00e1vku, proto\u017ee c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee soupe\u0159 m\u00e1 slab\u0161\u00ed nohu. To se ned\u00e1 p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst z algoritmu, ale rozhodn\u011b to zm\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek z\u00e1pasu.<\/p>\n

Co tedy d\u011blat?<\/h2>\n

Zapome\u0148te na \u201epouze \u010d\u00edsla\u201c. Kombinujte analytiku s re\u00e1ln\u00fdm pozorov\u00e1n\u00edm, nechte si od hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f slova do u\u0161\u00ed, a p\u0159itom vkl\u00e1dejte data jako dopln\u011bk, ne jako ultim\u00e1tum. V praxi \u2013 po ka\u017ed\u00e9m tr\u00e9ninku sedn\u011bte s asistenty, prob\u00edrejte konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed situace, a jen pak ov\u011b\u0159ujte, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed tabulky. To je ta rychl\u00e1 akce, kterou pot\u0159ebujete.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0158\u00e1dn\u00e1 d\u00e1vka \u010d\u00edsel, ale kde je ten m\u00ed\u010d? \u010c\u00edsla se sb\u00edhaj\u00ed jako m\u00ed\u010d p\u0159i rohu, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t